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the escape route

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the escape route

Post by Guest on Mon 24 Mar 2014, 4:56 pm

I'm just going to posit a hypothetical, as a way of illustrating a question. Let's assume, that we go with Oswald being on the 2nd floor at the time of the shooting. Let's posit there was "some other shooter" up on the 6th floor (a bunch of people saw a shooter up there, so let's go with that for this illustration). So, here's the question: what's the escape route? How did "the shooter" get out of the building?

Let's even give "the shooter" all the benefits of the doubt. Let's say someone had the whole thing staged in advance, so "the shooter" didn't even have to hide the rifle. He had complete freedom immediately after the shooting, and his only job was to get out of the building. How did he do it?

He had basically three ways to get downstairs, the elevators, the back stairs, and the front stairs. The elevators were stuck on the 5th floor 90 seconds after the shooting (according to Baker & Truly), so it's unlikely "the shooter" could have made it down on an elevator. And, weren't there a couple of women sitting on the 4th floor by the back stairs, eating lunch or something? "The shooter" would have run right into them on the way down, and they didn't see anyone. So that would leave the front stairs, wouldn't it?

Those elevators have been studied to death, haven't they? I've ridden in plenty of elevators of that kind, even if Oswald's job was only to keep an elevator waiting, it would have taken about 20 seconds to descend, and no one heard anything anyway, so it's quite unlikely an elevator went down then up again. The stairs would seem to be the logical answer - and what of the person at the 4th floor window, do we know who that is? Hm.

How about... the fake secret service guy that somehow showed up at the back entrance of the building and hung out for a while?

And, the strangest possibility of all... the shooter remained inside the building (posing as a secret service man, even). Either way though, he had to get downstairs somehow, and out of the building eventually. What could we deduce about the exact escape route the shooter must have taken (or tried to take)?

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Re: the escape route

Post by Colin Crow on Mon 24 Mar 2014, 6:32 pm

This has been considered before. Here are 190 pages of discussion of the issues for Oswald to do the feat. 

http://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,4427.0.html


Along the way the issue of escape by another shooter is touched on. I would advise not to make assumptions. Eg. "a stranger would be noticed before and after in the building."

Keep your mind open.

If Sean is right about PM then we know there was no mad dash down the stairs from the 6th floor by anyone other than Adams and Styles in the first few minutes.

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Re: the escape route

Post by beowulf on Wed 26 Mar 2014, 4:29 pm

Sean has completely upended this part of the story. I think its probable Oswald was by the entrance  on the 1st floor   when Officer Baker spoke to him and its possible Baker never took the stairs-- that he took the elevator on the ground floor directly to 5th floor.  Its possible at the same time the real shooter came down from the 6th floor to the 1st floor to leave. Its rather unlikely the elevators were actually stuck on the 5th http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archive/viewer/showDoc.do;jsessionid=452D224AE62C34B5B7FE733560511E03?docId=57697&relPageId=129. When a week after the shooting the FBK ran time trials on 10 different ways Oswald could get from 6th floor to 1st floor (including of course taking elevator from 6th floor to 1st floor), not a single one of their scenarios included either elevator stuck on 5th floor. That little factoid was apparently invented later.
http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archive/viewer/showDoc.do;jsessionid=452D224AE62C34B5B7FE733560511E03?docId=57697&relPageId=129


Last edited by beowulf on Thu 27 Mar 2014, 7:05 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: the escape route

Post by Guest on Thu 27 Mar 2014, 4:50 am

Colin Crow wrote:This has been considered before. Here are 190 pages of discussion of the issues for Oswald to do the feat. 

http://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,4427.0.html


Along the way the issue of escape by another shooter is touched on. I would advise not to make assumptions. Eg. "a stranger would be noticed before and after in the building."

Keep your mind open.

If Sean is right about PM then we know there was no mad dash down the stairs from the 6th floor by anyone other than Adams and Styles in the first few minutes.

lol - Hi Colin! Ask and ye shall receive, right? - grin -  Laughing  Thanks for that, I'll read through that link, there's a lot to digest.

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Re: the escape route

Post by Guest on Thu 27 Mar 2014, 4:57 am

beowulf wrote:Sean has completely upended this part of the story. I think its probable Oswald was by the entrance  on the 1st floor   when Officer Baker spoke to him and its possible Baker never took the stairs-- that he took the elevator on the ground floor directly to 5th floor.  Its possible at the same time the real shooter came down from the 6th floor to the 1st floor to leave. Its rather unlikely the elevators were actually stuck on the 5th http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archive/viewer/showDoc.do;jsessionid=452D224AE62C34B5B7FE733560511E03?docId=57697&relPageId=129. When a week after the shooting the FBK ran time trials on 10 different ways Oswald could get from 6th floor to 1st floor (including of course taking elevator from 6th floor to 1st floor), not a single one of their scenarios included either elevator stuck on 5th floor. That factoid was invented later. That little factoid was apparently invented later.
http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archive/viewer/showDoc.do;jsessionid=452D224AE62C34B5B7FE733560511E03?docId=57697&relPageId=129


Hi Beowulf, didn't Baker say he could see the elevators stuck up there when they looked up the shaft? I remember something to the effect of "they were visible" or something like that. Is there reason to disbelieve Baker? If so, why?

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Re: the escape route

Post by Guest on Thu 27 Mar 2014, 6:27 am

Ha ha - beatiful. Smile http://beyondweird.com/conspiracies/cncka003.html

A great example of model analysis using timelines.

That bit about the rearranging of boxes is interesting, it almost seems like the shooter didn't really try to escape. (At least not "quickly").

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Re: the escape route

Post by beowulf on Thu 27 Mar 2014, 7:28 am

Hi Beowulf, didn't Baker say he could see the elevators stuck up there when they looked up the shaft? I remember something to the effect of "they were visible" or something like that. Is there reason to disbelieve Baker? If so, why?

When the FBI ran its time trials a week after the shooting, both Baker and Truly were available for questioning, if either had suggested both elevators were stuck on the 5th floor, don't you think at least one of the FBI's 10 timed escape routes would have included an elevator ride starting on 5th floor?  More to the point, why would the Feds time Oswald escape routes with elevators on 6th floor, 4th floor or (called up from) the first floor if Baker and Truly were actually telling them that both elevators were stuck on the 5th floor?
The problem the FBI had with making the timing work
was the one solid fact they had was that Baker ran into Oswald. They can't say it was by the front door as he was coming in because they soon realized Baker was Johnny on the spot and hit the door in less than 25 seconds after when he would have run into Lee Oswald (per 1st day police press conference and witness accounts).  Alas, there wasn't enough time for Oswald to get there from 6th floor by any route.  Once they figured that, the Feds had to have Baker run into Oswald somewhere else-- couldn't be in the sniper's nest because no cop would be so stupid as to let him go, so the 2nd floor break room meeting was invented (of course no one on 4th floor saw him go down but I digress).

Once that 2nd floor meeting place becomes a key point then Baker cannot have taken the elevator since he would have ridden past 2nd floor.  Maybe Baker did take the stairs in real life, but clearly he HAD to have taken the stairs for the 2nd floor meeting story to work (that the girls on the stairs didn't see Baker walk up and one of the warehouse workers on the 5th floor reported seeing a cop walk off elevator was more or less irrelevant for the FBI's purposes).

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Re: the escape route

Post by Redfern on Thu 27 Mar 2014, 7:37 am

The TSBD shooter didn't run - or, at least, there is no convincing evidence that he did.

That leaves open the possibilities that he masqueraded as an agent of an organisation such as the Secret Service, a deputy sheriff in plainclothes (as in Luke Mooney's testimony) or a TSBD employee.

If we believe that Marrion Baker encountered an assassin near the stairway, then his original affidavit tends to rule out the first two possibilities in regard to clothing and behaviour.

Maybe the shooter was, or had recently been, a TSBD employee.

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Re: the escape route

Post by Terry W. Martin on Thu 27 Mar 2014, 10:29 am

Or maybe there was no shooter in the TSBD?

Then all the convoluted configurations in the world, all the marvelous time trials and such, are nothing more than "busy work" to keep the crowd occupied.

Who woulda thunk?

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Re: the escape route

Post by Guest on Thu 27 Mar 2014, 8:46 pm

terlin wrote:Or maybe there was no shooter in the TSBD?

Then all the convoluted configurations in the world, all the marvelous time trials and such, are nothing more than "busy work" to keep the crowd occupied.

Who woulda thunk?

Ha ha - well, let's see, working backwards - a. I'm convinced there was a shooter on the 6th floor (all three of the news cameramen saw the rifle protruding from and then being withdrawn from the designated window), and b. Redfern raises an interesting possibility - which leads me to the question: what do we know about the ex-employees of the TSBD (for instance the one Oswald replaced, the reason there was a job opening in the first place)?

And then c. reading through Colin's thread (I'm about a third of the way through it so far), I'm mystified by the abuse of logic! It practically leaps off the page at me - I mean, one of the most obvious abuses is that the same people who stipulate that the Warren Commission was a staged "show" rather than a true investigation, then turn around and use (and depend on) the Warren Commission evidence when they're making their arguments! Let me not start ranting, but this behavior is very annoying! (Plus it sucks up bandwidth too!)  Rolling Eyes This is why we need quantitative methods, it seems people spend way more time... I dunno... justifying themselves to themselves. We should be able to make simple statements like "these models depend on how much credibility one assigns to the witnesses' subsequent Warren Commission testimonies". Okay, I'll stop there. And I'll try to help. Smile

Now - I'm going to throw a monkey wrench into the mix. I'm going to posit the existence of a "mystery man" - someone in addition to the shooter, who may have been up on the 6th floor. A second person. I'm basing the existence of this person on the eyewitness testimony of the people who were across the street on the more elevated floors - those who had direct views into the 6th floor window. Plus we have a few tidbits of oddball corroborating evidence - but those witnesses report seeing two people - one white and wearing a white shirt, and the other either negro or dark-complexioned and balding or near-bald. But the details don't matter, let's just say: two people, instead of just one.

Now what does the escape plan look like?

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Re: the escape route

Post by 9K116 on Fri 11 Apr 2014, 10:23 pm

My 5 cents Very Happy

1. Even if there were no shots fired from TSBD, something strange did happen there on 6th floor. Remember man with scoped rifle, seen by Arnold Rowland. So let's assume there was at least one conspirator, and let's assume as well he did not want to bet caught there.

2. Next step: conspirator could leave the building, or hide somewhere inside waiting until the all the ruffle ends. And, if I was conspirator and planned attack to motorcade from TSBD, I would have insider there. Who either would help me to get away undeceted, or help to hide somewhere inside the building.

3. At first, take look on hiding inside the building. Some `classical hiding places`:
- on the cabin of elevator (i.e. `die hard` style);
- in the some technical or storage room, which is usually closed.
- deliberately prepared secret compartment. If there was an insider, conspirator (or conspirators) could even get access to TSBD building in the nights good time before November 22. Having both construction skills, instruments and materials, it would be possible to create such compartment.
Anyway, in this scenario conspirator performs his black deed, then hides in his secret hiding place and waits, when all the ruffle around the TSBD ends. After that he leaves TSBD undetected next night.

4. In case of leaving the building right after the shooting, the best way to leave is stairs or the elevators in the NW corner of building. Why it is best - because there is lesser risk to meet unexpected bystander, since all the people are expected to be on south site of building to watch JFK driving along.

As we know, moments after shooting police officer Baker entered the TSBD and, guided by Truly, searched the building. When they reached elevator shaft, both elevators were on 5th (or 6th?) floors. While these 2 persons ascended on stairs, they met somebody descending (who was voted by Truly to be `worker`), and, when they reach 5th floor, one of elevators was gone.

So the conclusion is, that conspirator(s) could leave the 6th floor descending by stairs (what makes Mr. Truly a `insider`), or (and) by elevator.

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Re: the escape route

Post by beowulf on Sat 12 Apr 2014, 4:49 am

Some `classical hiding places`

The best hiding place is behind one of these:
http://www.yourprops.com/movieprops/default/yp_4f980a5379b058.30597091/To-Live-and-Die-in-LA-USSS-credentials-1.jpg

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Re: the escape route

Post by 9K116 on Sat 12 Apr 2014, 5:22 am

beowulf wrote:Some `classical hiding places`

The best hiding place is behind one of these:
http://www.yourprops.com/movieprops/default/yp_4f980a5379b058.30597091/To-Live-and-Die-in-LA-USSS-credentials-1.jpg
Yep. Conspirator enters building just a regular visitor (as far I know there was no security or registration desk in the lobby of TSBD, so anybody from the street could easily access the building) ca. 12:00 or even earlier, then awaits somewhere on adminstrative floors while all the personell of TSBD goes for lunch and/or occupies best obervation places for viewing passing-by motorcade. Then ascends undetected to 6th floor, grabs rifle hidden there earlier (by insider in the TSBD), shoots the president, discards rifle, descend to first floor and there blend within entering SS agents and other security/law enforcement staff...

Only weak point in this teory is the factor of Bonnie Ray Williams, eating fried chicken and drinking Dr. Pepper on 6th floor. How would he react detecting stranger with rifle on 6th floor? How the stranger with rifle could be shure Bonnie Ray will keep his mouth shut?

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Re: the escape route

Post by beowulf on Sat 12 Apr 2014, 6:44 am

"Only weak point in this teory is the factor of Bonnie Ray Williams, eating fried chicken and drinking Dr. Pepper on 6th floor. How would he react detecting stranger with rifle on 6th floor? How the stranger with rifle could be shure Bonnie Ray will keep his mouth shut?"
Someone carrying a Secret Service commission book would not seem out of place carrying a gun anywhere. Williams would naturally assume him (as Arnold Rowland did watching from below) that he was a SS counter-sniper. If a federal agent (or at least someone carrying credentials) told Williams to leave the floor, of course he's going to leave. He might not have given the matter a second thought until shots rang out.
Only question is whether Williams figured out himself he needed to keep his mouth shut or if someone had to spell it out for him.

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Re: the escape route

Post by gerrrycam on Mon 14 Apr 2014, 12:49 am

The fake IDMan(army special forces)  at back door in my mind was shooter and he repelled down elevator shaft to make his escape from 4th floor.The short power outage had something to do with escape

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Re: the escape route

Post by Redfern on Mon 14 Apr 2014, 9:17 pm

It's a pity we don't know more about the Kaiser brothers. Both worked in similar jobs to Oswald at the TSBD.

Fred supposedly quit the TSBD the day before the assassination while Frankie claimed to be off work having dental treatment at the Baylor Medical Center. A police report dealing with a claim that Lee Harvey Oswald applied for a job as a car-park attendant found that Fred Kaiser was in fact the man involved, so there are grounds for believing they looked alike.

According to William Kelly, the Mary Ferrell archives show that there are discrepancies in the TSBD files concerning which days Frankie was at work.


The nub of the matter is that in a case plagued by 'coincidences', we have yet another - two brothers who worked alongside Oswald were absent on the day of the assassination, albeit ostensibly for different reasons.

However, would anyone in the offices below* - indeed, anyone outside the small group who worked under Truly and Shelley - have noticed whether Fred or Frankie turned up for work on November 22nd or, if so, whether they were later marked absent?


There is another issue that has always troubled me. Arnold Rowland spoke of seeing an 'elderly Negro' hanging outside the SE window on the 6th floor at the same time he saw the figure with the rifle. His last sight of this man was only shortly before the motorcade reached 'Main and Ervay' - i.e., less than 5 minutes before the assassination.

I find it hard to believe that someone falsely claiming to be a law enforcement agent and intending to murder the President would tolerate the presence of someone he didn't know. 





* At least, anyone other than Geneva Hine who wrote a reference for Fred

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Re: the escape route

Post by Hasan Yusuf on Mon 14 Apr 2014, 10:04 pm

I wrote the following essay on the possibility that Frankie Kaiser was an FBI informant, FWIW:

http://www.ctka.net/2013/The%20mystery%20of%20Ce163.htm

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Re: the escape route

Post by AllenLowe on Tue 15 Apr 2014, 3:56 am

I've always thoought there had to be TSBD people on thr 6th floor who saw everything but who were either paid off or threatened; and don't forget, Williams was a black man in the SOuth, snd it was 1963.

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Re: the escape route

Post by Terry W. Martin on Tue 15 Apr 2014, 4:39 am

AllenLowe wrote:I've always thoought there had to be TSBD people on thr 6th floor who saw everything but who were either paid off or threatened; and don't forget, Williams was a black man in the SOuth, snd it was 1963.

I believe that the only TSBD employees on the floor near that time were Bonnie Ray Williams, Jack Dougherty, and maybe Eddie Piper. Bonnie Ray claimed he ate his lunch on six but went down to the fifth floor to watch the motorcade with Jarman and friends. Some accounts have Piper on the first floor at the time of the assassination, and nobody is real sure where Dougherty was... including Dougherty, I think.

With the whereabouts of most of the employees accounted for (and I believe they have) the people hanging out the sixth floor windows with rifles don't seem to have been employees... either that or no real.

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Re: the escape route

Post by beowulf on Tue 15 Apr 2014, 7:25 am

"I find it hard to believe that someone falsely claiming to be a law enforcement agent and intending to murder the President would tolerate the presence of someone"


That's the beauty of fake Secret Service credentials, everyone (including local cops) will follow their directions at a presidential event and there were no actual Secret Service agents in Dealey Plaza (they all stayed w/ motorcade) who could challenge their legitimacy. If an "agent" ordered Williams to leave the 6th floor as motorcade approached, he's going to leave. It was an act of kindness perhaps, since he could have just let Williams stay and kill him on the way out.

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Re: the escape route

Post by greg parker on Tue 15 Apr 2014, 7:47 am

beowulf wrote:"I find it hard to believe that someone falsely claiming to be a law enforcement agent and intending to murder the President would tolerate the presence of someone"


That's the beauty of fake Secret Service credentials, everyone (including local cops) will follow their directions at a presidential event and there were no actual Secret Service agents in Dealey Plaza (they all stayed w/ motorcade) who could challenge their legitimacy. If an "agent" ordered Williams to leave the 6th floor as motorcade approached, he's going to leave. It was an act of kindness perhaps, since he could have just let Williams stay and kill him on the way out.
Williams never placed himself on the 6th floor initially. To explain his alleged presence up on 6, he came up with the excuse that they had all arranged to meet back there. Problem is, no on else was asked to confirm this story - and in any case, actions speak louder than words. It was to the 5th floor the other two headed, with at least one initially claiming Williams went with them.

The person who fits the description of Rowland's "elderly Negro" is Eddie Piper -- and Piper's alibi for his whereabouts during the shooting has more holes than a worm farm.
http://reopenkennedycase.forumotion.net/gallery/ASSASSINATION/JFK-WITNESSES-SUSPECTS/Front-view-of-eddie-Piper-pic_9.htm

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Re: the escape route

Post by Stan Dane on Tue 15 Apr 2014, 2:28 pm

AllenLowe wrote:I've always thoought there had to be TSBD people on thr 6th floor who saw everything but who were either paid off or threatened; and don't forget, Williams was a black man in the SOuth, snd it was 1963.
If this is true, then the person(s) up there acted somewhat like Sergeant Schultz:


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Re: the escape route

Post by Redfern on Tue 15 Apr 2014, 9:16 pm

beowulf wrote:"I find it hard to believe that someone falsely claiming to be a law enforcement agent and intending to murder the President would tolerate the presence of someone"


That's the beauty of fake Secret Service credentials, everyone (including local cops) will follow their directions at a presidential event and there were no actual Secret Service agents in Dealey Plaza (they all stayed w/ motorcade) who could challenge their legitimacy. If an "agent" ordered Williams to leave the 6th floor as motorcade approached, he's going to leave. It was an act of kindness perhaps, since he could have just let Williams stay and kill him on the way out.

Yes, it could have been a fake Secret Service agent - there is no way of proving otherwise.

I just have a gut feeling that the TSBD end of the assassination was an inside job.

The clothing worn by the sniper would have raised doubts (no suit, shirt and tie) as to him belonging to the Secret Service. He either had an assistant/accomplice in the guise of the man seen with a 'brown suit coat' or this was a TSBD manager.

If the shooter was a fake Secret Service agent, then I suspect this was known to several TSBD employees. It would have been very difficult to effect an escape from the 6th floor without assistance.


One other related issue is how any sniper would know exactly where the motorcade was. There appears to have been sufficient awareness on the part of the 'elderly Negro' to leave the 6th floor at the right time. Could the shooter depend solely on the reaction of the crowd or would he need access to DPD radio?

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Re: the escape route

Post by beowulf on Wed 16 Apr 2014, 12:47 am

As George Bailey notes, there are nearly a dozen witnesses to Secret Service agents who appear to be impostors.  One was dressed casually while two others were seen just outside the TSBD. If white cops can't pick out the fake federal agents, its unreasonable to expect black warehouse workers (this was Texas in 1963) to be more assertive and vigilant.

"Dallas police officer Joe Marshall Smith encountered a man dressed in a sports shirt and pants that produced SS identification. Smith noted the man had dirty hands like that of a mechanic. He allowed him to go about his business.
Sergeant D.V. Harkness sees several men in suits that in his words were “well armed” behind the schoolbook depository building a few minutes after the assassination. He approached them and they identified themselves as Secret Service agents, showing credentials."
http://oswaldsmother.blogspot.com/2009/08/phony-secret-service-agents.html

As for how a sniper would know where the motorcade was, anyone with the resources to procur authentic looking Secret Service credentials could easily buy a police radio scanner or, for that matter, line up a lookout with a walkie talkie.

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Re: the escape route

Post by Redfern on Wed 16 Apr 2014, 6:35 am

beowulf wrote:As George Bailey notes, there are nearly a dozen witnesses to Secret Service agents who appear to be impostors.  One was dressed casually while two others were seen just outside the TSBD. If white cops can't pick out the fake federal agents, its unreasonable to expect black warehouse workers (this was Texas in 1963) to be more assertive and vigilant.

"Dallas police officer Joe Marshall Smith encountered a man dressed in a sports shirt and pants that produced SS identification. Smith noted the man had dirty hands like that of a mechanic. He allowed him to go about his business.
Sergeant D.V. Harkness sees several men in suits that in his words were “well armed” behind the schoolbook depository building a few minutes after the assassination. He approached them and they identified themselves as Secret Service agents, showing credentials."
http://oswaldsmother.blogspot.com/2009/08/phony-secret-service-agents.html

As for how a sniper would know where the motorcade was, anyone with the resources to procur authentic looking Secret Service credentials could easily buy a police radio scanner or, for that matter, line up a lookout with a walkie talkie.
There is no doubt that there were fake Secret Service agents in Dealey Plaza. Nevertheless, if one (or more) were involved in the TSBD shooting, don't you think they had to receive assistance?



An alternative explanation for the Kaiser brothers' absence would be that they had forewarning and did not want to be involved. Is it possible that Joe Molina changed his lunch routine that day and that Givens ran off in panic for similar reasons?


In my view, the man Baker intercepted as stated in his original affidavit was the 6th floor shooter. Truly lied. The lunchroom encounter never happened and Oswald was at the front entrance as Sean Murphy has convincingly argued. Vickie Adams told the truth. It took much longer for Baker and Truly to leave the front entrance than they claimed (Truly probably caused the delay). Dougherty guarded the stairs and elevators on the 5th floor and made sure Norman, Jarman and Williams did not cause any problems. Piper may have had a corresponding role on the first floor. The 'sniper's nest' was partially assembled (unwittingly in some cases) by the floor-laying crew and Dougherty added the finishing touches. I suspect the MC rifle was a prop and the real rifle was placed in a large container.

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Re: the escape route

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