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JFK Timeline Project

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Frankie Vegas
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Frankie Vegas
Frankie Vegas
Posts : 367
Join date : 2009-11-09
Age : 41
Location : New Zealand

JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty JFK Timeline Project

Fri 04 Jul 2014, 5:00 pm
First topic message reminder :

New JFK Timeline Project has been released. Deserves special mention here (apart from how useful it's going to be) because ROKC's very own Steven Duffy had a big part in making it. He gave years of his hard work from his index to the Project. Bookmark this puppy and use it lots!

http://www.jfk-timeline.org/index.php

Frankie Vegas
Frankie Vegas
Posts : 367
Join date : 2009-11-09
Age : 41
Location : New Zealand

JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Mon 21 Jul 2014, 1:58 pm
I'm keen to help, although I'm more of an activist than a details person. I have just made an account on the site (the confirmation email went to my 'junk' folder in my email).
I went to the home page and searched first 'Yates' as I am following the discussion here about him. It went to a page that had information about him and then there were links to buckets (although they haven't been filled in yet?) so I went back and searched 'Ruby'.
I clicked on Jack Ruby, went to his profile and then down the bottom of the profile clicked on 'event bucket' as I thought it would take me to the page you linked above.
I ended up on a page that was called 'event bucket editor'. Not sure where I took a wrong turn?
But maybe by my signing in and trying to find the page you can see the level I am at (which is probably around -2 lol).
I will spend the next few hours messing around until I feel more comfortable navigating the site.
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Mon 21 Jul 2014, 9:49 pm
I'm still getting to grips with it.  It looks very interesting indeed although it is going to take me a while getting under the hood.

There is much already populated in the timeline. For instance, Oswald moving to NOLA brings up a timelines like this:

JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Screen15

Each blue dot being a timed event.  Clicking on it will bring up an event profile page like this:

JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Screen16

Brian, out of interest how is the confidence level of an event assigned?
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Mon 21 Jul 2014, 10:43 pm
Frankie Vegas wrote:I'm keen to help, although I'm more of an activist than a details person. I have just made an account on the site (the confirmation email went to my 'junk' folder in my email).
I went to the home page and searched first 'Yates' as I am following the discussion here about him. It went to a page that had information about him and then there were links to buckets (although they haven't been filled in yet?) so I went back and searched 'Ruby'.
I clicked on Jack Ruby, went to his profile and then down the bottom of the profile clicked on 'event bucket' as I thought it would take me to the page you linked above.
I ended up on a page that was called 'event bucket editor'. Not sure where I took a wrong turn?
But maybe by my signing in and trying to find the page you can see the level I am at (which is probably around -2 lol).
I will spend the next few hours messing around until I feel more comfortable navigating the site.

Hi Frankie - ah, okay. There's two different things going on here. (You tried the "other" one). Smile

How the Jack Ruby timeline was created, is, to the right of Jack Ruby's name on the Manage screen you should see a button that says Events. If you push that, you'll see the list. What this button does, is it aggregates all the People buckets underneath each Event. That's one "direction" of cross reference, so for example, inside the event "Jack Ruby shoots Oswald" there is a People Bucket, and inside that you'll find Jack Ruby's name, and Oswald's name. When the Events button is pushed next to Jack Ruby's name, the "JR Shoots Oswald" event shows up "because" Ruby's name is in the People bucket. So, we're just aggregating all the places where JR appears in the People Buckets.

The "other" direction of cross-reference, is the one you tried, and that is, directly underneath Jack Ruby's profile there is an "Event Bucket", and yes you are right, that should contain the entire list of Events that JR was involved in. However I have not yet organized this direction of cross-referencing, for the Jack Ruby events. (That's because I'm still not done entering them, there's about 200 more to go).

This issue of keeping the cross-references in sync, is addressed by "another" one of the buttons near Jack Ruby's name, it's the one called "Reconcile". That feature is still in a half-working state, but it should work okay for Jack I think. At any given moment, if you push that, it'll show you several things: a ) you'll see all the places the name "Ruby" appears in the Event Name, but the Profile either doesn't yet have a People Bucket, or the one that's there is empty - then below that b ) you'll see the places where the Person is in the Event bucket but the Event isn't in the Person bucket, or vice versa.

Lemme see... the other reason I haven't yet filled in the Event bucket for Jack, is kind of back-door and sly: we already HAVE the bucket of Events, we built it when we pushed the Events button next to Jack Ruby's name. (Right at the bottom of the list there's a link or a button that says "Build A Bucket With These Events", push that and on the next screen you get to name the bucket, hit ok and you'll get the bucket id). So, since we already have the bucket, we don't have to build it again - what we can do is LINK it directly underneath Jack's Profile, "as" the Event bucket. To do that, we have to do exactly as you did - go to the Profile screen and push the Event Bucket button, and if it says "Create" when you push it, on the next screen it'll ask you whether you want to "link new" or "link to existing", and in this case you choose EXISTING instead of new, and you give it your bucket name, and you're done. Now you have a bucket full of the proper Events as Ruby's Event Bucket. (IF the Profile button doesn't say "Create" it means there's some other Event Bucket already there, so you can either get rid of it by unlinking it, or you can combine the bucket contents and clean up the leftover empty bucket when you're done).
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Mon 21 Jul 2014, 11:01 pm
Colonel Von Hello wrote:I'm still getting to grips with it.  It looks very interesting indeed although it is going to take me a while getting under the hood.

There is much already populated in the timeline. For instance, Oswald moving to NOLA brings up a timelines like this:

JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Screen15

Each blue dot being a timed event.  Clicking on it will bring up an event profile page like this:

JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Screen16

Brian, out of interest how is the confidence level of an event assigned?

Hi Colonel - oh yeah, the NOLA timeline - that was the beginning of an experimental thing I was working on just to prove we could create an Event bucket and use it to build a Timeline. (You can tell it's kind of sparse, it was from a while ago). Hopefully we'll have a better timeline there pretty soon. Smile

The confidence levels, that's a great question. It's a long answer. "That's where the math comes in", is probably the short version. Let's see - initially, a SWAG will work, you don't want it to be too far off though, because that's what the optimizer looks at. There's different "flavors" of confidence, it means something different for an Event than it does for a Person. For an Event, the confidence is determined by the variability of the optimized Event Window relative to the stated Window. And that, is somewhat complex, ... um... (fishing for words)... The confidence level is something the system optimizes. "It" eventually figures out how confident "it" is in the Events it's looking at. You can initialize the confidence with a SWAG, but during the process of optimization it's supposed to "tend" and "trend" towards its natural (and proper, and correct) value. How quickly or slowly that happens depends on how many data points and how many iterations and so on, but this is one of the ways you can ask the system questions. And all of this, gets into the advanced area of "modeling", which is very much where we're headed with all this.

You'll notice right now most of the confidence levels are 0. Some are non-zero but I'm using those for another purpose right now, I've not yet initialized any "real" confidence levels. We don't have to do that till we start modeling, which is still a ways away. (Couple of weeks? Three maybe?) We can build timelines without confidence levels. Y'know... maybe I can reactivate one of the old models, just to show you how this works. We had a Tippit Shooting one that was working pretty good, I kinda dismantled some of that stuff (or at least left it in a halfway state while trying to clean it up), but lemme see if I can find it and make it work (if I can I'll post back in the morning). What you can see is the system "optimizing an event" and "assigning a confidence level to it". The model output is something like this: "JD Tippit got shot at 1963-11-22 13:09:53 +/- 47 seconds, with a confidence level of 82%". And that kind of output occurs "after several iterations" of an optimization experiment - so then, what you can do is simply leave that number in place, and thereafter the system can use that number when the same Event "isn't" being optimized (in other words, when it's serving as a reference point for some other Event that "is" being optimized). I dunno if that makes sense, hopefully it does, we can talk more about it for sure. Smile
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Tue 22 Jul 2014, 5:32 am
Colonel Von Hello wrote:I'm still getting to grips with it.  It looks very interesting indeed although it is going to take me a while getting under the hood.

Brian, out of interest how is the confidence level of an event assigned?

Hi Colonel - this is a great question you're asking here, and it deserves a better answer.

Let me amplify quickly (everything I said before is true, but here's more):

Specifically for an Event - there is an interplay between the event "times" and the "evidence" that supports the event.

Here's how it works: in most instances, an Event is "defined by" the Evidence. In most cases (at least here in the JFK world), we don't have actual physical evidence - all we have is "testimony", or some kind of "official record" perhaps, or maybe a document, y'know, a newspaper clipping or something. AND, we have interviews, which may be on YouTube, which are also "testimony" in a way. In other words, for the real REAL description of the Event, we have to rely on peoples' word - their memories, their motives, their accuracy.

So, part of this, is, when we define an Event we have to be honest about assigning variances to it. You'll notice in the Event Profile that all the times have "variances" attached to them (including the event duration, which also has a variance). That's kind of a more sophisticated concept than it sounds - because you know about ordinary statistical variance, but this variance is more than that. And not only is there just the ordinary variance being represented in the Profile, there are different "versions" of variance - and you can use that for instance when you've got an event like the late night encounter between Hansen and Ruby, where you're pretty well sync'd up on the "starting time", but the "ending time" varies all over the map - at first the testimony says "two or three hours", and by the end of the HSCA it's down to "just a few minutes, maybe ten or fifteen".

What we're doing is defining a Window within which the Event "may have occurred", and notice the word "may", that's also part of the confidence level, and obviously that's where the Evidence comes in, and our confidence level in THAT. Confidence levels for Evidence are more straightforward, conceptually they're a lot closer to what we ordinarily conceive of as everyday confidence (or lack thereof). And the Evidence in turn, "sometimes", relates back to the confidence levels in the Person records of the people giving the testimony.

SO - when the system calculates the confidence for an Event, it's looking at a lot of things. There's a pretty long formula for how it actually calculates the number, and the reason it's done this particular way is probably "theoretical", it has to do with the Cost Function for Optimization (which you can read about if you're really interested, it's math though, real math with integrals and derivatives and lottsa little symbols, ... but you can check Ising Model, Boltzmann Model, Black-Scholes Model, all of that is somewhat along the same lines of what we're doing).

During optimization, the system "juggles" the Event Windows. That's how it really works. It does something very similar to the pebble-sifting analogy I posted earlier. What it's doing is kind of "sifting" the windows, through different sized analytical mesh, and kind of how it works relative to the Cost Function is like this: you begin with pebbles of all different sizes, and then you use increasing mesh size in your chicken wire grid, to separate the pebbles by size - so you end up with "buckets" of event windows where bucket A has all the small ones, bucket B has all the medium ones, that kind of thing. And then it calculates the Cost Function based on how "expensive" the interactions between the windows are. And that in turn is based on the magic behind-the-scenes "almost AI" system that analyzes "event logic", for example the system knows that the same person can't be in two places at once so it assigns "expense" to that kind of a window interaction.

So, what happens is, "confidence levels" end up rippling upwards into these buckets, where there is then a calculation that is kind of "global" in nature (you can look at it almost like the "temperature" in a gas), whereupon the number then ripples backwards back down into the original events. This is what happens during an "iteration" of optimization. Little by little, the system as whole moves along a "cost surface", almost like a marble rolling down a hill or something. The "optimal" window configuration is the one that results in the least cost. And the "amount" of that cost is what ripples back ultimately into the confidence levels in the leaf nodes.

I know it sounds a bit technical, but once you've done a little work with the screens you'll "grok" exactly what's happening, it becomes intuitive at some point. To begin with, like right now at this very early stage when we're just doing data entry, the system will help us with the initial SWAG's - for instance there's a set of rules you can invoke that goes something like, "if there's one eyewitness it's a 25% initial confidence, if there's two it becomes 40% except if those two people are related, in which case it drops to 35%"... stuff like that. When we get to that, I'll show you how that works (you just press a button, basically, during the part of the workflow called "Bucket Validation").

By the way - once you have a bucket full of Events, you can try Exploding it, that will show you very quickly in what condition the underlying cross-references are. Right now for example, if you explode the Jack Ruby Public Third Effort or whatever it's called there, you'll see that there are plenty of Events, with a few People underneath them, but there is no Evidence yet. That's where things stand at the moment - the Evidence hasn't been connected yet. It's "there", but the cross references aren't built yet (in other words, the "Evidence Buckets" either don't exist or have nothing in them). And, I intend to start working on that this evening, so in a day or two you'll start seeing Evidence records there, when you Explode Jack Ruby. (Ha ha, that sounds like fun! Smile )

I dunno... hopefully this explanation helped and you're not more confused now than you were before. The method we're using is called "constrained stochastic optimization", it's a time-honored Nobel-prize-winning big-time-money-making very successful method, it's been applied in many areas already. All it really is, is a probabilistic version of "curve fitting". We're just threading the right curve through the data (or trying to, anyway). Smile
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Tue 22 Jul 2014, 8:43 am
Okay - I installed the filter into the Timeline Editor, should make this much easier. When you go to load the timeline (Operations => Timelines => Manage Timelines, and then push the "Contents" buttons next to the timeline of your choice), you'll see a "LONG" list of events on the left hand side. And, underneath it, there's a little text box and a button that says "Filter".

Let's I want to see "just" the Event names beginning with "Jack Ruby", I can make that left-hand list a little more manageable (and quicker to display). I just type "Jack" into the text box, and then hit the Filter button. Now I'm seeing only the names beginning with "Jack".

Keep in mind that these are actually Hash Tags you're looking at (in the list), and not real Events. So, the names are compressed - for example "Jack Ruby" becomes "JackRuby". This is good though, because let's say I have events beginning with "Jack Ruby" and "Jack Lawrence" and "Jack Valenti" or whatever - and I only want to see "Jack Ruby", so I can type "JackR" into the filter field and that'll work.

You can play around with it, I tried it via the front end and it seems to work fine. This is the same mechanism I use to load Buckets, so for instance if I want to load a People bucket with Ruby, Oswald, and Loran Hall, I first type "RubyJ" into the filter field (and click him over), then "OswaldL" (and click him over), and "HallL" (and click him over), then I'm done. This way I don't have to wait for gazillions of Hash Tags to load all the time, plus it helps focus my mind when I'm trying to build a bucket with multiple items in it. Try it, I think you'll like it. Smile
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Wed 23 Jul 2014, 3:47 am
Other data types - buildings and organizations are naturally "People" (since they're reasonably permanent and have "life-spans" and all that). So, you'll find JURE and Alpha-66 under "People".

"Conditions" are naturally Hash Tags. So for instance, let's say we have a law that expires on 1/1/63, and gets replaced by another law - so, "Changing Conditions", right?

You "could" represent that as Events, but it's not really "natural" that way. However you can easily create a Hash Tag called "AB-563" or whatever the name of the law is, and drop that Hash Tag wherever it has to go.

For instance - in relation to the possible involvement of Oswald in any early "spy rings" in the housing projects or whatever - there are "events" in that story, and there are "conditions", and after looking at it for a few moments it should be pretty natural to figure out which is which, yes?

Right now I'm grappling with the first end-to-end Evidence buildup, that's the Silvia Odio visit as we discussed - and I "just now" found out about Bernardo de Torres and all that - so it turns out this is a PERFECT set of scenarios for a little modeling exercise.

The problem here, is the Evidence is "really weird". It's not so much the presence or absence, it's the way it's structured. Also, this is one of the MOST "hot" areas/topics for disinformation, it seems. (Y'know, like how DeTorres got into the Garrison investigation in the early days and kind of "distracted" that for a while).

So like, in this very simple story which takes all of two or three days in real time, we have "related stories" that encompass HUGE time frames. And, we also have competing models, for instance there's the "Loran Hall and William Seymour" theory, and there's the "Bernardo de Torres and Edwin Wilson" theory (which by the way, doesn't dovetail 100% with the evidence either), and they may even come together at some point through General Walker (or his batman perhaps, however that works).

Anyway, "Jack Ruby timeline almost done" as of this morning. There's a Loran Hall there now, and a Crafard, they're sparse ("Version 1") but they're there, they were built in exactly the same way as the Jack Ruby one. By the end of the day there will be a Silvia Odio prototype too.
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Wed 23 Jul 2014, 12:58 pm
Hi all - quick word: I've noticed there's a lot of seasoned veterans on this forum. Some of y'all are probably writing books 'n' stuff like that. So, I figure you may be interested in the "dissemination of information" (yours in particular, maybe - or just in general).

If so, you're watching this n00b in action. You can check the web site once in a while, and inspect the data relative to the way it looked the last time. Right now for instance, you're seeing me "drilling down". This is me entering data, right? So, I told you the way I do it, "terrain mapping". How that works in practice is, I do the "Jack Ruby First Effort", then I look at that and slap my forehead 'cause of all the easily identifiable gaps - then I go back and do more research, and try to fill in those gaps, which then results in the Second Effort, and so on. Iterative drill-down.

And, I stop when I have "enough" detail (for the time being), or, when something gets "uninteresting". For example, right at this present moment I'm going through all the LHO events putting the People buckets in there. I'm up to 1-1-63 just now. (If you hit the Events button next to LHO right now, you'll see everything that begins alphabetically with Oswald till 1/1/63, but not yet stuff that begins alphabetically with LHO, haven't got there yet). The bulk of the events are yet to come (which tells I need to go back and get some more data on the early years).

Oh and, in addition to the alphabetically "Oswald" events till 1/1/63, you'll also see some events (about 70) related to "Oswald in New Orleans", which we'd done previously as a demo, but that was an old bucket and all those will be covered in the sweep that's presently occurring - so by the end of the day there should be a nice juicy Oswald First Effort timeline in place. (I found I have to do this "before" I can complete the Ruby timeline, there's some People in particular that I had to add, so the Events had to come first, and yadda yadda).

So, this is how my n00b mind works, yes? As I'm reading something (anything - your book maybe), I'm basically reading about "Events". And, while I'm reading, my mind tries to identify the People around those events, and it starts to kind of "model" those people, based on the information from the event stream. Then, if a person becomes interesting, you go back and do more research, which means you're "drilling down" - you want more detail - both on the Events and anything else you can get, any kind of evidence at all - even oddball stories, 'cause they may generate useful leads.

So, this is the "model of learning" that's being (hopefully) created, and hopefully it gets a little assist from the mathematical piece eventually. The database should be very natural though, "intuitive". You got People, Events, and Evidence, and your job is to cross-reference them. ("That's what we do", right?) Then when you have "enough" cross-references, you can begin modeling stuff - which means considering theories, "juggling" events, deciding for yourself how much confidence you have in what you're reading -

Some of the stuff I read, is pretty persuasive. Y'know, coming from a strong personality like a Garrison maybe, he sounds... "authoritative". But here, where the pedal hits the metal is when you're connecting the Evidence records. Because then, you have to be precise. The system FORCES you to go all the way down to the original sources of the information. (If you don't have that, you can't do much of anything useful, and the system will tell you "don't bother"). You're fully aware I'm sure, of how much regurgitation there is on the net and in books and just among people in general - and some people weave a great story but they don't have many references... that kind of thing. At some point the system forces me to be "diligent", and right now when I'm just entering a list of Events or an occasional new Person it's pretty loose, but the minute I start connecting those Evidence records, wham, I can't afford to wear a loose hat anymore.

(It's kinda elegant how it works actually - pats self on back Smile - it draws you in and then it hits you with a little rigor! - I figure maybe it'll help the raise the overall quality of the space eventually).  Go for it! 

So y'know, "you're seeing the loose part right now". The minute you see those Evidence records going in, you'll see the whole thing tighten up. Right now we're "filling space", trying to get "coverage", and once we clean up the mess we're going to have a real nice surface - nice and smooth. Then it'll be a lot easier to fathom the whole thing, and if you come up with an exciting new area of research it'll be pretty easy to figure out how and where it fits in with the bigger picture.
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Wed 23 Jul 2014, 2:53 pm
Oh yeah - if you go to the People Menu, and select "Search People", and in the field where it says Creation Date:

type:

">2014-07-21 00:00:00"

just like that, without the double quotes

That being yesterday's date, you'll see the new People records I entered yesterday and today. Some are just placeholders, others already have information.
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Fri 25 Jul 2014, 2:31 pm
Well, there's an LHO timeline up on the site, it has much (most) of the "official" record. Doesn't have a whole lot beyond Garrison time frame (yet), but, there's enough of a landscape there to where drill-down can begin.

You're the experts, what do you think? There are definitely times and events and people/places that need to be filled in - like the Kerry Thornley stuff, the Odio visit, the childhood, ... there's a lot of missing detail, but at least you can see where it belongs (on the timeline, hopefully, at this point).

So, I did promise the Odio end-to-end, and I'm working on that. There was some missing stuff I had to find out about (De Torres and what that all means), but it's getting there.

Now it's down to the Evidence in both cases, and that's still going to take a minute, there are placeholder records without links right now, and it'll take a couple days to get through all ten thousand of those. But we're very close to fun and games. Smile

Meanwhile any input you may have on the LHO and Ruby timelines is greatly appreciated!
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Sat 26 Jul 2014, 1:23 am
Oops, forgot - give y'all some links:

The 2nd draft of the LHO timeline: http://www.jfk-timeline.org/timelines/262.htm

In addition, I'm working on the Motorcade Sequence -

The Event tree is here: http://www.jfk-timeline.org/jfk_explode_ebucket.php?buckettype=2&bucketid=642

And the Witness tree is here: http://www.jfk-timeline.org/jfk_explode_ebucket.php?buckettype=8&bucketid=1751

Trying to nail down the "official" anchor events before drilling down into the details.

(Julia Ann Mercer practically deserves a section all to herself - and maybe she'll get one eventually! What a farce! - slaps forehead in disbelief - )

(I can't get these links to come out, so please cut and paste as needed). Smile


Last edited by greg parker on Sat 26 Jul 2014, 7:19 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : links fixed)
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Wed 30 Jul 2014, 4:31 pm
Evidence!

Clay Shaw Trial: http://www.jfk-timeline.org/jfk_explode_ebucket.php?buckettype=4&bucketid=1837
Orleans Parish Grand Jury: http://www.jfk-timeline.org/jfk_explode_ebucket.php?buckettype=4&bucketid=1757
Warren Commission: http://www.jfk-timeline.org/jfk_explode_ebucket.php?buckettype=4&bucketid=324 (warning: long!)
ARRB: http://www.jfk-timeline.org/jfk_explode_ebucket.php?buckettype=4&bucketid=456
HSCA: http://www.jfk-timeline.org/jfk_explode_ebucket.php?buckettype=4&bucketid=325

(login is required for these links)

The first two are fully cross-referenced and reconciled, the third one is at the tail end of a namespace adjustment and that'll be done tomorrow, and the last two are just getting started (and it'll only be a matter of a few more days on those).

At the moment these record are links to photographic PDF's of the original documents, they're not searchable text yet - however that feature will be added as well. For now the purpose is to enable cross-referencing, and there will be a programming upgrade to support that too.

Still working on the Odio end-to-end (that was the purpose of all this, had to get the evidence in place first Smile ). People still being added, and lots of "non-official" evidence. So far so good.  bounce
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JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Empty Re: JFK Timeline Project

Sat 02 Aug 2014, 6:00 pm
JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Event110

For Stan and others, I put together the beginnings of an answer to the "how does it work" question. I'd like to show you graphically, it'll save a lot of words.

First, we have an event. This one, is a "Point Event" (it has no duration). However, it does have a "variance" that goes along with the Event Time. So, the Event ends up looking like "point time, plus or minus variance", and that configuration defines an Event Window (a "window within which the event may have occurred").

Next, we have a more complex event, this one has Duration. In this case, the Event Window is defined by a starting time, and a duration.

JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Event210

Actually the start time and duration both have variance, which is depicted in the next slide showing two events next to each other. Each event is shown with both the start time and duration having variance, which means the Event Window so defined has a minimum and maximum size.

JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Event310


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Sat 02 Aug 2014, 6:19 pm
JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Event410

Next, we can specify a "logical" relationship between the events, using an Event Relation. For instance, we can say the Second Shot "must come AFTER" the First Shot.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. DEPENDING on the variances, and the exact definition of the start time and the duration, the Event Windows for Event 1 and Event 2 may actually overlap. Depending on how we've set up these events, there may be a small but finite probability that because of a "window crossing", Event 2 may actually precede Event 1.

And, because of the Event Relation in place, such a situation would be non-sensical. (It's illogical that the Second Shot should precede the First Shot).

Therefore, the system makes this situation EXPENSIVE. Expense means "costly", and you can look at "costly" like the energy in the system, say... the temperature of a gas (a "global" property of the "system as a whole"). The system wants to relax into its lowest energy state, and anytime there is a window crossing the opposite thing happens (each window crossing "adds" to the temperature).

JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Event510


Therefore, in the simplest case when everything is linear, you can imagine a process whereby the system counts the number of window crossings, multiplies each by an "expense factor", and thus calculates a "total cost" for the current configuration.

The "expense factor" is not just a number, it depends for instance on the width of the window crossing ("wider" window crossings are worse, they're more expensive because they're "bigger").

So then, after the global temperature is calculated, the system figures out each window crossing's contribution to the total amount, and it "adjusts" the event times and variances so as to SLIGHTLY reduce the cost in the next iteration. The word "slightly" is important because we actually want this process to converge so it arrives at an "optimal" lowest energy state.

There are other "constraints" on the Event Windows, besides just the logical ones introduced through Event Relations, and the boundaries imposed by the numbers in the Event Profile. But this is generally how it works - constraint violations are costly and the system attempts to minimize the cost by adjusting the allowable parameters.

"Anchor Events" are those with well defined times and very low variances (like, police logs or hospital logs or other cases with a time stamp). These help the process to converge, because they "anchor" the rest of the events as they move within their allowable Event Windows. And there are many events with very wide windows, like someone may say in testimony, "I don't recall exactly when it happened, it was in the afternoon, either Wednesday or Thursday because I remember having something else to do on Friday" and etc etc.

So, I'll stop there, this should provide a pretty clear answer (at the 101 level) to the definition of the Event Window and the concept of Window Crossing.
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Sun 03 Aug 2014, 7:19 am
I like my model better, but I don't feel like testing it so I'll go with yours for now.  

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Sun 03 Aug 2014, 8:54 am
Stan Dane wrote:I like my model better, but I don't feel like testing it so I'll go with yours for now.  

JFK Timeline Project - Page 2 Black_10

Jeez... well the least we could do is accurately describe the events we're trying to describe.


(Right?)


We do after all have time anchors, there's even audio tapes and all kindza stuff... well never mind. We don't need a "curved universe" to describe a few days in November, it's just the usual palace intrigue and somewhere there's a group of prime movers.

Hm. Did you see the Swiss study where they used this exact method to determine "who owns what" in the world? (I mean, who "really" owns what, the names behind the faces behind the front corporations, that kind of thing). That was pretty impressive, they used old data but they had a lot of it, so they came up with some interesting results.

Yeah, it's a bit of work. Just now I'm pulling my hair out trying to enter all the Evidence records, in fact I'm about to give up and go hire my keypunch people back at ten bucks an hour, 'cause I can't get this done fast enough myself. But the database IS getting better, plus there's a major software upgrade coming next week where many of the annoyances will be resolved -

And I promised the Odio visit as an example, and that IS the short term goal of entering all this data, is to make that work - so far we have three different versions of the story, plus several more that appear to fit with the available event stream, so that should be a great example where we can explore a lot of the power of what the math can do (and also see what it "can't" do, which is just as important). We have the Warren-era version of the story, the Garrison-era version involving Loran Hall's various recollections, and then the latest one with Angelo Murgado and all that. Three different "models" that people thought were compatible with the event stream, at one point or another.

'Mkay, so back to data entry. Trying to move all the text literals for "evidence" out of the events themselves, ... I'm not entirely sure why no one's ever organized the data in this way, it would seem to be necessary for any genuine due diligence (I mean, if we're talking about timelines and what happened when). Plus, I mean, .... quick now... what was the date on which Oswald first used the Hidell ID? How long is it going to take someone to Google that one, and become "reasonably certain" they have the correct answer? (The answer does matter, right? Smile )

Stick with me, I'll try to give you something useful in appreciation for your willingness to spend time with the graphics. (Nice vortex, btw).  pirat
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Sun 03 Aug 2014, 11:36 am
Stan Dane wrote:I like my model better, but I don't feel like testing it so I'll go with yours for now.  

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Stan, the upside down trombone works for me
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Thu 07 Aug 2014, 3:31 am
All right, for all you Skeptics out here in skeptic-land, the question is, "what's missing"?

This is most of the "official" stuff I could find on short notice, and I'm very much thinking this should be "enough" to start building a for-real database.

http://www.jfk-timeline.org/jfk_guide_evidence.php

btw, it's a good idea to be judicious (and specific) with the searches now 'cause all this stuff really exists, if you type "Oswald" into one of the search screens you'll get 1500 people, 4800 events, and over 12,000 pieces of evidence, in other words a very long list - which the database will happily provide but which will overwhelm the display on many browsers (especially the smaller and mobile kind).

An open question to everyone - what else should be included in the list?

I'm aware of the RIF system for "documents" (a la Mary Ferrell and such), but, what about YouTube videos and such, interviews, magazine clippings, etc etc, is there some kind of "formal" system for cataloguing such things that I may not be aware of?

I"d like to make this database as useful as possible, right now there still aren't many cross-references, but it seems to me that with the stuff on this list we could start building up at this point. What do you think?


(ps no login required for the link) Smile
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Thu 07 Aug 2014, 9:25 am
I am not sure about citations for those sort of things but I am pretty sure Carmine would know. He's the citingest (if there is such a word) fellow around.

In an earlier thread he commented and cited the comment itself.

Self-referring may be a redundancy but it worked for me. (And no comments about  this self-referring redundunce, okay?)

Anyway, Carmine's probably the best source.

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Sun 10 Aug 2014, 6:06 pm
Is there a way to delete one's JFK Timeline Project account? I don't see one. I played around with it a little, but I'm not a researcher, so I won't be using it anyway. If I don't expect to be using something anymore, I'd just as soon close out the member account, if possible. One less thing to keep track of.

Good luck with your system. I'm sure it will benefit serious research.

Sincerely, Stan
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Tue 12 Aug 2014, 4:53 pm
Stan Dane wrote:Is there a way to delete one's JFK Timeline Project account? I don't see one. I played around with it a little, but I'm not a researcher, so I won't be using it anyway. If I don't expect to be using something anymore, I'd just as soon close out the member account, if possible. One less thing to keep track of.

Good luck with your system. I'm sure it will benefit serious research.

Sincerely, Stan

Sure, I'll take care of it. I'm curious though... you say you're not a researcher... why do you say that? I mean, why are you here chatting us up if not for research? Do you consider yourself a "hobbyist", like idly interested or something (but not really to the level of serious research), or what do you mean?

We're at 41,000 evidence records as of today (there's over 7000 in the Russ Holmes Work File alone). So, we give you this neat feature where you can "zoom" in and out on whatever evidence you want to look at. Sure beats typing literals into Mary Ferrell. Smile

We "wrap" around the original evidence, so, things on History Matters and Mary Ferrell and the National Archives and like that. So, we're duplicating every single evidence record that's in any of those places, and as far as anyone knows right now, that is the totality of the official evidence.

One of the interesting things is, counting all that stuff up we get about 65,000-ish records, which is approximately equivalent to the number of documents the CIA is still withholding. They claim around 50,000 - so roughly speaking we're missing as many documents as we have. For instance if you peruse the "HSCA Segregated Microfilm Collection" you'll notice that half the reels are empty, they've been "withheld for national security reasons". Yuk. Sad

It's really a shame that we have to do something like this. Especially at this late date, fifty years after the fact. That's just ridiculous, it boggles the mind. What's the big deal? Everyone knows what our government is capable of, it's not like it's a secret or anything. So, y'know, we get confirmation that a false flag went wrong, and I'll betcha the interest level among people at large is a big fat yawn. As long as the paychecks keep coming, nothing's wrong.

Right?
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Tue 12 Aug 2014, 5:42 pm
nonsqtr wrote:
Stan Dane wrote:Is there a way to delete one's JFK Timeline Project account? I don't see one. I played around with it a little, but I'm not a researcher, so I won't be using it anyway. If I don't expect to be using something anymore, I'd just as soon close out the member account, if possible. One less thing to keep track of.

Good luck with your system. I'm sure it will benefit serious research.

Sincerely, Stan

Sure, I'll take care of it. I'm curious though... you say you're not a researcher... why do you say that? I mean, why are you here chatting us up if not for research? Do you consider yourself a "hobbyist", like idly interested or something (but not really to the level of serious research), or what do you mean?
I have a strong interest in the JFK assassination, but I don't consider myself a researcher as defined as someone who conducts organized, systematic investigation. I am a consumer of good research. I am one who, hopefully, contributes "to a positive discussion on such research," including "suggestions for improvements, or giving additional relevant material facts."
 
To toot my trombone a bit, Lee Farley months ago asked if anybody had an approximate time that the Presidential motorcade passed St. Paul and Main. I checked Walt Brown's Master Chronology of JFK Assassination Book II, and came up with 12:21-22 PM. A couple months ago, I discovered a detailed floor plan of the 1st Floor of the TSBD Building, which I posted. A couple weeks ago, Martin Hay, having not read Into The Nightmare, asked if anyone could provide details of the author's interview with T. F. Bowley. I manually typed excerpts of all references to Bowley found, taking me about 1/2 day to do so.

Having made suggestions for improvements and occasionally giving additional relevant material facts, I think I've lived up to Greg's scrolling banner mission statement enough to earn my keep here. I am a staunch supporter and unapologetic defender of Greg and ROKC. I am loyal to a fault.
 
I try to do whatever I can to draw as many people here to ROKC as possible. Having fun and doing interesting—sometimes quirky—things is a big part of that. Because more visitors means more people get exposed to the work of the real researchers here. That's what it's all about in my book.
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Tue 12 Aug 2014, 6:24 pm
You're trying to be humble. Okay, I appreciate that, and thank you for your contributions to the research community ('cause I'm the one reading those papers too). Smile

Well, I aspire to be a real researcher. So far I'm a n00b, I'm "getting familiar with the evidence", I can't help but read it as it appears on the screen. It's a rich dataset, it should be open to quantification. But I figure, if you're doing work, you're a real researcher. Even if you're in a support role - which is "not even" the role I'm in yet (I aspire to that too).

I like ROKC too. (Both the concept and the site). The thing is, ... I'm already pretty sure whoever did this was reasonably sophisticated. They would have covered the trail as much as possible, even to the degree of planting false paperwork and such... and, I don't hold up much hope for the cowboys in the CIA to ever release that information (even if it still exists - unless someone "forces" them to, and on the political side it doesn't seem like there's anyone left with those kinds of 'nads - probably 'cause they know they'll get assassinated or something). Smile

Well, before we can put anything into the vortex there's a "must-have" which is a complete and completely hyperlinked database, so hopefully that'll benefit the research community 'cause no such thing exists at the moment - which is mind-boggling in and of itself, but you can look through the literature and see how many times the "real researchers" have reinvented the wheel, y'know... beginning with the motorcade sequence, and that chronology, ... I mean, Mary Ferrell did a pretty decent job way back when, and since then there's been literally hundreds of reconstructions of that, none of which seem to differ very much. Hopefully it sold some books, anyway...

There's something missing in this "JFK Research" space. You've got sites full of evidence (like Mary Ferrell, NARA, History Matters, there's a few), and you've got a "community of researchers" who know how to make use of the evidence, and then the rest of it, is.... you Google on "JFK assassination" and the first thing you see is "JFK Assassination Solved" and the next few items on the list are McAdams Reitzes and Von Pein.  Don't even think abo 

And, if you're an armchair researcher and you'd like to know if there was a grassy knoll shooter or not, .... I dunno.... Snopes?

The majority of the theories - including specifically the Warren Commission's idiotic "magic bullet" theory - can actually be disproven by the evidence. (Unless you're willing to subscribe to the impossibly high standards being raised by the minions of orthodoxy, in which case "nothing" can be disproven and we'll still be having this very same discussion when we're old and gray).

So, even if you don't believe in voodoo math and all that, I hope you'll get a carefully organized and meticulously cross referenced public database, in the way of an "ante" as I'm learning the ropes. And, the opinions I spout up here on ROKC won't be reflected in that database, it'll be a professional "real research" thing. (However that doesn't mean we can't have fun while we're doing it, and it also doesn't mean there won't be other ways to use it).

Hm. I was reading about Loy Factor today (and the man named "Wallace" - and the woman)! Yuk. What a tale. The dollar amounts seem about right though. Smile
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Tue 12 Aug 2014, 11:13 pm
Stan Dane wrote:I am a staunch supporter and unapologetic defender of Greg and ROKC. I am loyal to a fault.
 
I try to do whatever I can to draw as many people here to ROKC as possible. Having fun and doing interesting—sometimes quirky—things is a big part of that. Because more visitors means more people get exposed to the work of the real researchers here. That's what it's all about in my book.

Mon ami!

Such sentiments!! "Loyal to a fault" - you were talking of me, I think. I am always a little faulty...

I have written a book on the subject but I am not here as a researcher. I just saw a shingle that said someone was trying their damnedest to get the case reopened and the cause sounded worthy enough to me.

I am just one of the jauntily clad, foppish, musketeer cheerleaders of the site. I enjoy supporting Greg's research - his book is quite good, waiting now for volume two - I enjoy seeing Hasan explode - which is a sight to see - and I love to see Stan's humor... Wussup Haters? That still slays me!!

Some of the folks here are researchers some are just interested supporters who can ocassionally point out something someone may have overlooked.

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Wed 13 Aug 2014, 12:57 am
terlin wrote:Mon ami!

Such sentiments!! "Loyal to a fault" - you were talking of me, I think. I am always a little faulty...

I have written a book on the subject but I am not here as a researcher. I just saw a shingle that said someone was trying their damnedest to get the case reopened and the cause sounded worthy enough to me.

I am just one of the jauntily clad, foppish, musketeer cheerleaders of the site. I enjoy supporting Greg's research - his book is quite good, waiting now for volume two - I enjoy seeing Hasan explode - which is a sight to see - and I love to see Stan's humor... Wussup Haters? That still slays me!!

Some of the folks here are researchers some are just interested supporters who can ocassionally point out something someone may have overlooked.
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