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Lance Payette, almost getting it right

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Lance Payette, almost getting it right

Post by greg parker on Tue 19 Dec 2017, 12:08 pm

Lance Payette wrote:The folks at this forum hate "philosophical" discussions, preferring to obsess over the minutiae of the assassination, but I truly think they embody the adage about being unable to see the forest for the trees.  Any conspiracy theory has to at least make sense from the 30,000-foot level.  Sophisticated conspiracies are never unnecessarily elaborate.  Whether we're talking about a CIA/FBI/Military Intelligence conspiracy, a Mafia conspiracy, a Radical Right conspiracy or any other form of reasonably sophisticated conspiracy, I have a very difficult time believing it would have involved, even as a patsy, a character like LHO (and if it had, LHO would have never exited the TSBD alive).  I have an impossible time believing it would have involved as many screw-ups and left as many red flags and clues as characters like John Armstrong, David Lifton and the Prayer Man crowd think they see.  As I've said until even I'm tired of hearing it, in every one of the elaborate conspiracy theories the conspirators are geniuses at steps 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9 and clumsy fools at steps 2, 4, 6, and 8.  I just don't find that plausible.  The more sophisticated the actors (e.g., CIA/FBI/Military Intelligence), the less plausible such a scenario becomes.

I've said before that I don't completely reject the Lone Nut theory simply because LHO was a strange and complex character at best and such characters sometimes do surprising things (as we saw recently in Las Vegas).  To the extent I'm open to a conspiracy theory, then I believe the only one that makes sense from the 30,000-foot level is a scenario such as Larry Hancock has proposed - a small-scale, somewhat seat-of-the-pants assassination conspiracy by a fairly ragtag bunch, which might plausibly have included LHO (perhaps as an unwitting participant), followed by an unrelated cover-up conspiracy to quickly close the case with LHO as a lone nut in order to avoid embarrassment to the CIA and FBI and a public outcry for retaliation against the USSR and Cuba.

If I have any advantage, it's that I'm not obsessed with the JFK assassination.  My interest in the assassination goes back to the early 1970s, but I've spent more than 50 years neck-deep in the UFO research community, the Near Death Experience research community, the Shroud of Turin research community, and other assorted Weirdness communities.  I've seen how these communities operate.  They are ALL THE SAME.  I've just returned here from an extended foray back into the Roswell UFO Crash community.  It has its own John Armstrongs, its own David Liftons, its own True Believers, its own voices of reason and all the rest.  The parallels are really striking.  Observing how these communities operate does, I believe, give me a healthy (i.e., skeptical and slightly comical) perspective on the JFK assassination research community as well.  In his most recent book, Kevin Randle (the dean of Roswell researchers) says that 20 years ago he was certain Roswell was the smoking gun, the definitive UFO case.  20 years later, eight of his key witnesses have proven to be not who they claimed to be, not where they claimed they were, and simply fabricating for no apparent reason (such as fame or money).  Now he is far more open to a mundane explanation for Roswell.  My trajectory with the JFK assassination is similar - from gee-whiz conspiracy theorist who uncritically lapped up Lane's, Lifton's and Grodin's work to someone who now finds the Lone Nut theory far more plausible.  If there was a conspiracy, then efforts need to be focused on the real EVIDENCE and then fitting that evidence into a theory that at least MAKES SENSE.
The above was brought about after Lance successfully and easily plucked another David Josephs turkey before expertly roasting it.
http://educationforum.ipbhost.com/topic/24493-if-oswald-was-511-why-show-him-57/

While I agree with much of Payette's assessment, his insistence on certain matters is just plain wrong.

1.  Any conspiracy theory has to at least make sense from the 30,000-foot level.  Sophisticated conspiracies are never unnecessarily elaborate.  Whether we're talking about a CIA/FBI/Military Intelligence conspiracy, a Mafia conspiracy, a Radical Right conspiracy or any other form of reasonably sophisticated conspiracy, I have a very difficult time believing it would have involved, even as a patsy, a character like LHO  

Patsies have to be believable for the part they are being cast. Who would Lance use as a patsy? A Harvard graduate? LHO was perfectly cast. He could be verifiably shown to be a would be defector to the Soviets and a supporter of the Cuban revolution - either of which could be used to blame "the enemy" and set them up for attack - while also leaving open the possibly he could be painted as a "lone actor" if that turned out more desirable in the post-assassination environment. Which is exactly how it played out... war planes on high alert to attack... police looking for co-conspirators and drawing up charges under non-existent "international conspiracy" laws. 


2.  (and if it had, LHO would have never exited the TSBD alive).

Lance himself, stated in another response - "Weird stuff happens.".  Lance seems to think it only happens in one direction leading to innocent explanations, and does not ever happen by deliberate design. In this case, allowing him to leave had a deliberate design. Later that day, prior to the first show-up, it was claimed a torn Cox's box-top was found on Oswald. By strange coincidence, Julian Rosenberg was claimed to have instructed one of his spy ring to use a torn Jello box-top as identification for his contact - in a theater.  If that on it's own, is not enough, then at what point do Rosenberg "coincidences" pile too high to be considered true coincidences? Lee was supposedly turned onto Marxism at 15 while living in NYC and being handed a pamphlet about freeing the Rosenbergs. But Julius Rosenberg himself had written from prison that HE had been turned on to Marxism at 15 in NYC after being given a pamphlet on framed unionist Tom Mooney. Then there is also the coincidence that the Rosenberg apartment building and Youth House where Lee spend two weeks under observation, were both owned and operated by the same family. While all of that may sound overly complicated to Lance from his 30,000 feet distance, it is all factual and leads to a reasonable conclusion that the late finding of the box top on Oswald was due to it being planted for the express purpose of showing he was at that Theater to meet his KGB contact. In fact, other evidence suggests he was not supposed to leave that theater alive and the box-top would be "found" on his dead body leaving no doubt he was a "traitor" ala the Rosenbergs.


3.  I have an impossible time believing it would have involved as many screw-ups and left as many red flags and clues as characters like John Armstrong, David Lifton and the Prayer Man crowd think they see.

I don't know if Lance is involved in criminal law, but if he is, then what I find hard to believe is that he is not aware of all the flaws and corruption in the legal system, starting with police handling of investigations and suspects. To lump the Prayer Man issue in with Armstrong and Lifton is not only egregiously wrong, it is highly insulting.  

Armstrong spun his work from seeming anomalies, false sightings,  photos of the same person looking a little different, but mostly from the faulty memories of WC witnesses and his own cultivation of other self-described witnesses. It is smoke and mirrors.

Lifton spun his autopsy fantasy from the erroneous description of "previous surgery" in an FBI report. His previous efforts for this "cause" included advocating snipers in hollow trees. 

The Prayer Man "lobby" is based on actual multiple police and FBI records, first day news accounts and knowledge of the DPD and Henry Wade's proven appalling legacy of framing more innocent people in Dallas County than any other county in the US and indeed, more than in some entire states.  I have already gone through this on more than one occasion, but once more for Lance. The Dallas DPD and Wade had the justice system by the balls in Dallas. They did not need to take care because any screw-ups could be erased or otherwise made to go away. The usual MO was for Fritz to use every trick he knew to get a confession - which eliminates the need for actual evidence. But if that fails, evidence could be planted, witnesses leaned on, junk science used etc. All of those things come into play in the Oswald case. To deny that is tantamount to denying that framing ever existed and to continue to explain it away as "screw-ups". But such denial flies in the face of many many case studies by the Innocence Project, and by the facts now known of the afore-mentioned Wade era. Whilst all of that would have normally held up in Dallas, they knew it was not going to work in a trial being watched by the rest of the world. Under those circumstances, the only way to "prove" Oswald was guilty was to kill him and continue with trial by media. The feds of course, had to do something more, and as everyone knows, a blue-ribbon commission is the perfect solution to get rid of such problems.


4.  I've said before that I don't completely reject the Lone Nut theory simply because LHO was a strange and complex character at best and such characters sometimes do surprising things (as we saw recently in Las Vegas).

I am not involved in the law in any way, shape or form, yet I know that any cold case investigator has the important task or (re)checking the alibi of any suspects. That is the whole basis behind the Prayer Man Lobby - Oswald's stated alibi. There is nothing wacky, insane, deluded or dishonest in attempting to verify or refute someone's alibi. It is exactly what should be done. I would, on the contrary, say there is something very wrong with ignoring it, and ignoring the DPD/Wade legacy for framing the innocent and maintain - without even considering the implications of any alibi - that the official version may yet hold water.  Also refer to point 3 and the insulting nature of lumping the investigation of an alibi in with the likes of Armstrong and Lifton lunacy.


5.   I believe the only one [conspiracy] that makes sense from the 30,000-foot level is a scenario such as Larry Hancock has proposed - a small-scale, somewhat seat-of-the-pants assassination conspiracy by a fairly ragtag bunch, which might plausibly have included LHO (perhaps as an unwitting participant), followed by an unrelated cover-up conspiracy to quickly close the case with LHO as a lone nut in order to avoid embarrassment to the CIA and FBI and a public outcry for retaliation against the USSR and Cuba.

Close. Small scale - yes; rag-tag - some of them, yes, at least in appearance; seat-of-the-pants - yes, but by design; including LHO - yes - as patsy; followed by unrelated cover-up - yes. 

The stuff about comparisons between this "community" and others is spot on. It's as if several psycho-social experiments were being done simultaneously to see how similar the results would be.

On the other hand, the attempt to lump research into Oswald's alibi with the Two Oswald Theory and alleged autopsy alteration is appallingly wrong-headed.  No JFK forum - including McAdams', has done more to reign in the excesses of theorizing that permeate other boards. And no other forum has done more to normalize this murder as a cold case just like any other, and proceed from that sane, non tin-foil hat wearing premise.


Last edited by greg parker on Tue 19 Dec 2017, 2:26 pm; edited 3 times in total

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Re: Lance Payette, almost getting it right

Post by Jake Sykes on Tue 19 Dec 2017, 1:07 pm

Bravo Greg. This is why you rule the roost, no turkeys allowed, be they plucked or otherwise roasted. 

One more point to make to Lance is that as far as I know most everyone on this forum will gladly accept a truth made obvious through procurement of clear imagery that shows LHO is not PM. At that point it all ends, full stop. Truth is truth and that's all we seek. That is nothing close to religious zealotry.

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Re: Lance Payette, almost getting it right

Post by greg parker on Tue 19 Dec 2017, 2:07 pm

Jake Sykes wrote:Bravo Greg. This is why you rule the roost, no turkeys allowed, be they plucked or otherwise roasted. 

One more point to make to Lance is that as far as I know most everyone on this forum will gladly accept a truth made obvious through procurement of clear imagery that shows LHO is not PM. At that point it all ends, full stop. Truth is truth and that's all we seek. That is nothing close to religious zealotry.
Thanks Jake.

Yes, as I said to Alan Dale, it's not about being right, it's about getting it right. That's what this place is for. Getting it right.

_________________
Mixing Pop and Politics he asks me what the use is
I offer him embarrassment and my usual excuses
While looking down the corridor
Out to where the van is waiting
I'm looking for the Great Leap Forward

            Billy Bragg
-----------------------------
 Australians don't mind criminals: It's successful bullshit artists we despise. 
             Lachie Hulme            
-----------------------------
The Cold War ran on bullshit.
              Me

“God favors drunks, small children, and the cataclysmically stoned...” Steve King
"The worst thing about some men is that when they are not drunk they are sober." Billy Yeats
"You're not drunk if you can lie on the floor without holding on." Dino Martin



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Re: Lance Payette, almost getting it right

Post by Paul Francisco Paso on Tue 19 Dec 2017, 7:09 pm

I think Lance should spend less time on conspiracy addled sites before he comments on the JFK assassination. WTF does Roswell or the Shroud of Turin have to do with PM or Oswald for that matter? Sure there are trolls and all the rest of it that comes with the territory but that only distracts from the real evidence and in most cases that is the aim or the agenda. The Lone Nut theory only becomes plausible when you let it defeat you in lieu of an alternative and guys like Lance are the type who seek affirmation one way or another.  Therefore he has not real business with the assassination. His involvement is strictly personal. I can relate to his frustration but his meek surrender to the LN theory suggests to me he is basically self serving. He can join the queue with the rest of of the rubber neckers that this case seems to attract. They contribute nothing while having plenty to say about it.
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