LHO and possibilities of espionage around him

9K116 wrote:I believe we can agree that is proved that LHO didn't match `agent profile` in period of defection to USSR as well as after returning to USA. Some short thesis why:
- Poor social skills; 
- Problems controlling his own emotions and gestures;
from here

I think he actually had very good control of his emotions. That's different to being able to properly show empathy, or understanding social cues and norms.

- Activities both during defection and, allegedly, connected with assassination on JFK:
from here

I will try to review some variants of espionage activities around LHO and/or with his help.

To begin, I must emphasize - it is very important to understand - that while in USSR, LHO was in total surveilance of KGB. I am sure KGB tried to follow him in every step he made, to listen every word he said, to intercept and read every letter he wrote on paper. Every human being he met or talked with also automatically became figure of interest of KGB. Besides, I believe most of people around him was acting or unwitting agents of KGB.

My belief is that KGB was not "in the loop" and so would have kept a close eye on him. I think LHO's mission was aided on the USSR side by Mikoyan.  

That means 2 almost certain things:
1. It would be practically impossible for LHO to make contact with another American agent on soil of USSR.
2. It would be practically impossible to transfer some package to another American agent on the soil of USSR. Most likely, this package would be detected and investigated during LHO stay in the hotel even in the Minsk period. Besides, transfer of such packages, imho, requires intelligence agent or operative with much higher level of training and skills than LHO could have. 

If he did bring something in, it was not to give to any US agent of officer. It was for the Soviets. Radar was a major issue in test ban talks (that is, the ability to detect tests through radar). My theory is that Ike's White House wanted to share that technology with the Soviets to clear the path for a ban -- but it could not be done openly because of the Hawks in the administration. The solution was to do it covertly. Odd as it may sound, doing it this way was perfectly legal under the terms of the Science Exchange agreement with the Soviets. The CIA - as I believe they had done in the past -- gave support to this Special Group operation -- but was not itself, running it. The CIA thus found out the nature of the mission (to save the test ban talks) and acted to negate it by ordering a U2 flight behind Ike's back and ensuring or knowing it would be brought down. 

Oswald's sole work experience prior to the Marines was as a messenger/courier. There is every reason to believe his employer was "connected" to private and/or government covert agencies. 
 

So, my conclusion is if LHO had mission consisting of one or above, he most likely should fail it. Especially, after he was transfered to Minsk - the CIA or whoever could be his superior, could not foresee that. 

On the contrary, I think it became part of the arrangement to send him to the Horizon factory so that he could gather intelligence as quid pro quo for the radar info. The factory was of some intelligence interest to the US and I believe Oswald was given a limited amount of time in the experimental shop to gather whatever data he could. 

While we are still not too far from emphasis of total surveilance of LHO, I would follow with next conclusion, which is that Marina most likely was an acting KGB agent, especially if claims of her activities before Minsk are true - see here. 

Asuming that CIA or whoever could be LHO superiors could foresee the total surveilance of him in USSR, I have lot of doubts that LHO had intelligence mission behind his defection.

However, I find this Greg's post in Education Forum, which means Greg has some information on mission of another kind that LHO could have. I would be appreciated if Greg could share little bit more info on this issue.

No details on a mission - just speculation which kind of sticks out when you do a timeline of events, and then look at little known or discussed details. I have for instance, never seen anyone write about the radar issue with regard the test ban talks -- yet it is a rock solid fact - moreover, one that a key WH insider admitted caused them to become creative in resolving it.  

It is known, that after a continious surveilance KGB made decision that LHO is no threat for USSR and he does not show any intelligence activity. Questions to be answered:
- Was total surveilance cancelled while LHO was still in USSR?
- Is it possible that he, however, was on intelligence mission, which deliberately was foreseen long enough to wait while KGB total would be cancelled? And LHO started his intelligence activities only when surveilance was suspended?

Those questions are immaterial if my scenario is correct.

Since people do not retire from KGB like from any other job or profession, Marina should have instructions how to establish contact with KGB after she travel to USA together with LHO. KGB won't let go its agent with such great possibility to legalize in USA. However, it is most likely that KGB won't rush with contacting her, since they also knew she could be under surveilance of FBI and too soon interest towards her could terminate her as valuable agent. My conclusion will be that she most likely wasn't contacted until November 22, 1963, and after that day she lost her value as agent because of becoming to popular. If I was her supervisor in KGB, I would terminate her file just after I learned that LHO is accused in assassination of JFK.

I'll have more to say on Marina at some point, but too much to go into here.

I believe that American side, i.e. FBI certainly understood this detail and, if we believe in involvement of FBI in the coverup of JFK assassination conspiracy, could use it as instrument to make Marina give statements they needed. She could be forced to comply with threat being accused in espionage against USA...

Something caused her to comply after initially not doing so. The above is as good as any other suggestion.

I think he actually had very good control of his emotions. That's different to being able to properly show empathy, or understanding social cues and norms.

My belief is that KGB was not "in the loop" and so would have kept a close eye on him. I think LHO's mission was aided on the USSR side by Mikoyan.

If he did bring something in, it was not to give to any US agent of officer. It was for the Soviets.

Radar was a major issue in test ban talks (that is, the ability to detect tests through radar).

My theory is that Ike's White House wanted to share that technology with the Soviets to clear the path for a ban -- but it could not be done openly because of the Hawks in the administration. The solution was to do it covertly. Odd as it may sound, doing it this way was perfectly legal under the terms of the Science Exchange agreement with the Soviets.

The CIA thus found out the nature of the mission (to save the test ban talks) and acted to negate it by ordering a U2 flight behind Ike's back and ensuring or knowing it would be brought down.

Oswald's sole work experience prior to the Marines was as a messenger/courier. There is every reason to believe his employer was "connected" to private and/or government covert agencies.

On the contrary, I think it became part of the arrangement to send him to the Horizon factory so that he could gather intelligence as quid pro quo for the radar info. The factory was of some intelligence interest to the US and I believe Oswald was given a limited amount of time in the experimental shop to gather whatever data he could.

Those questions are immaterial if my scenario is correct.

At the moment I can't see how radar could be used to detect tests. Yes, I believe that radars could be used to detect missiles flying over certain area, and maybe even behind horizon, but can radar detect nuclear blast? Ok, maybe it can detect the mushroom cloud after the explosion, I don't know.

Much of the early research into effective Over The Horizon systems was carried out under the direction of Dr. William J. Thaler at the Naval Research Laboratory; The work was dubbed "Project Teepee" (Thaler's project). Their first experimental system, MUSIC (Multiple Storage, Integration, and Correlation), became operational in 1955 and was able to detect rocket launches 600 miles (970 km) away at Cape Canaveral, and nuclear explosions in Nevada at 1,700 miles (2,700 km). A greatly improved system, a testbed for an operational radar, was later built in 1961 as MADRE (Magnetic-Drum Radar Equipment) at Chesapeake Bay. As the names imply, both systems relied on the comparison of returned signals stored on magnetic drums, then the only high-speed storage systems available.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-horizon_radar

Ok, it sounds reasonable enough. Besides, it reveals possible motivation of assassination of JFK - sharing the secret or advanced technologies with the `worst enemy` always can be easily viewed as treason. Even if the sharing of technologies could be defined as legal under certain agreements or legal acts. Some people always have different views (and if I understand correctly, you call these peoples Hawks ). 

I am not so sure about this. Generally, because American recon planes flew freely over Soviet air space all over 50-ies. The flight of Powers, as far as I know, was not anyhow special; it just happened so that excatly his flight was shot down - nobody could not be sure about that. Soviet interceptors in that time could not achieve altitude of U-2 plane, and SAM missiles, used in shotdown of Powers, weren't new - they were in use from 1957, just like U-2 plane.